Experts predict that the global electric vehicle market will be dominated by Chinese manufacturers

Time：2024-01-05　Reading：67

Experts predict that within the next decade, Chinese companies will dominate the global electric vehicle industry by selling cars at very attractive prices.
According to Sandy Munro, an automotive engineer, about 8 million electric vehicles will be sold domestically in China by 2023, almost double the 4.5 million sold in the rest of the world.

Mr. Munro is the founder of Munro & Associates, an industry consulting firm.

He said Chinese carmaker BYD had become the world's largest maker of electric vehicles, overtaking Tesla.

He predicted that BYD would eventually become "the largest car company in the world," bigger than Volkswagen, General Motors and Toyota.

While Western countries accuse China of dumping electric vehicles, the 40 or so surviving start-ups in the world's largest auto market are ramping up production to meet an expected surge in demand. Since 2009, China has led the rest of the world through about $14 billion in subsidies for electric vehicles.
By 2028, about half of all cars sold worldwide will be electric. Sweden and Norway have been leaders in phasing out internal combustion engines.
In addition, experts from industry consulting firms said that Chinese automakers will take more share in the global market, especially in major countries such as India, which are unlikely to establish an electric vehicle industry in the short term.

Developing countries will welcome cheaper electric vehicles from Chinese manufacturers as they strive to meet emissions reduction targets.
In China, the price of electric cars is much lower than in other parts of the world. Byd introduced the Seagull electric car in April at a price of about $11,000. That's less than half the price of the Model 2 electric car that Tesla plans to build at its factory in Germany, which will sell for $26,800. Monroe said the typical electric car in the United States currently costs about $50,000.
According to a Reuters report, BYD has expanded sales to Norway, Denmark and the United Kingdom, as well as Thailand and Australia. However, BYD's plans to enter the second-largest auto market after China have been delayed by tensions between the United States and President Joe Biden's push to build an electric car industry in the United States. At present, the electric car price war is mainly limited to China, where BYD and Tesla are the main competitors.
"Tesla has been talking about one day launching a $25,000 electric car," said a leading Shanghai-based consultancy. Volkswagen said, 'Let's set a goal to eventually make an electric car that costs 25,000 euros ($27,000).' However, they have not yet achieved this goal. I can buy an electric car in China for less than half the price."

■ Stagnant development

Unlike in China, demand for electric vehicles in the United States has stagnated because they remain too expensive and the charging infrastructure is too fragmented, according to domestic auto dealers, who in November sent an open letter to the Biden administration urging a delay in regulations to boost domestic electric vehicle manufacturing.
In May, the EPA proposed a rule that would require 60 percent of new vehicles sold in 2030 to be electric. The proposal exceeds the 50 percent target for electric vehicle sales by 2030 set out in the Biden administration's executive order.
The American Inflation Reduction Act provides a tax credit of up to $7,500 for U.S. electric vehicle buyers, while requiring that any electric vehicle containing battery components made by a "relevant foreign entity" such as China be ineligible for subsidies by 2024.

■ Electric cars are piling up at U.S. dealerships

"Today, the supply of unsold battery-electric vehicles has ballooned because they can't sell fast enough to reach our dealerships - even with steep price cuts, manufacturer incentives, and generous government incentives," the letter said. "Mr. President, it's time to put the brakes on unrealistic government electric vehicle mandates."
The letter said the United States should "give time" to allow battery technology to develop, make electric vehicles more affordable, and build domestic battery supply and charging infrastructure. It is estimated that it will take a decade for the United States to establish a domestic electric vehicle battery supply chain.
Byd and other Chinese rivals have an advantage in the supply chain for electric vehicle batteries, which account for about 40 percent of the cost of an electric vehicle. Chinese battery makers such as Ningde International and BYD have also built up a portfolio of patents and secured supplies of key materials such as rare earths.

■ Automotive chip ambitions

Electric vehicles use more silicon than traditional internal combustion engine cars, so China has the potential to capture more of the market for electric vehicle chips.
Chinese foundries such as SMIC and Huahong are expanding production of electric car chips after US export controls last year prevented Chinese companies from buying tools to make more advanced chips.
Chinese chipmakers will compete in ADAS system chips, including image sensors, edge graphics processors, memory, communication chips and microcontrollers, as well as electricity-related silicon carbide and gallium nitride semiconductors for charging systems.
For Chinese companies, advanced ASics for ADAS systems may be more difficult to develop and manufacture in China. But so far, US export controls have not targeted this sector. For example, Chinese companies can still get ADAS systems with some advanced Nvidia Gpus. I expect Chinese companies to focus on developing domestic alternatives to all the semiconductors used in electric vehicles, just as Huawei has tried to make smartphones that are largely or completely unaffected by US-controlled technology.

■ Chip competition

Chip designer Nvidia recognizes that it may soon face greater competition from Chinese companies. As long as competition forces us to do better, we will do our best." "Said Danny Shapiro, vice president of automotive at Nvidia. This is about the development of the entire platform, the vast amount of software, libraries and algorithms in the network, the ecosystem. To be successful, you really have to develop it all." At the same time, he also believes that Chinese-made electric cars will be a global sensation.
"I've ridden in some electric cars from China, and I've been impressed by them," he said. "The innovation, technology and quality are excellent. From an underlying technology perspective, I think there's a lot of great work going on in China, especially in areas like safe driver assistance systems, autonomous driving, where we're heavily involved."
In Taiwan, Nvidia has joined forces with Foxconn to form an electric vehicle alliance aimed at forging partnerships with companies still in the electric vehicle business. Foxconn said it will launch electric vehicles powered by the soon-to-be-released Nvidia Drive Hyperion 9 platform, which includes the chipmaker's Drive Thor processor and sensor architecture.